“Foster Your Roster” – Setup Men are More Valuable than Closers

First, I’m not crazy. This only applies to leagues that have both Saves and Holds as separate categories.  In the 2011 season, 19 closers had 30 saves or more, and eight of them had at least 40.  In contrast, only seven relievers had 30 or more Holds, and none reached the 40 mark.  The setup man with the most Holds last season was Tyler Clippard, and he had great numbers to go along with it.  Clippard and Dave Robertson both had 100 strikeouts (Robertson’s came in only 66 innings), proof that these guys have just as much, if not more, talent than closers on other teams.  Another bonus for setup guys is the potential to pick up wins.  While closers remain on the bench waiting for save chances, setup men are routinely brought into tie games in an attempt to keep it close for their team to then take the lead. Finally, setup men always have the potential to become the closer and pick up Saves, as a result of injuries or poor performance by the closer.  For closers however, there is nowhere to go, but down.  If they blow a number of save chances and are removed from the role, they typically wind up pitching in low leverage situations that offer little fantasy value.

The one thing to be wary of, however, are situational setup men such as lefty specialist or others that typically only face one batter.  They can be effective in accumulating Holds, but they have the potential to blow up your ERA or other stats, due to the low number of batters they face.  In addition to that risk, they also don’t provide the same strikeout potential as talented setup men who pitch full innings.

So, if you’re in a league that has Holds as a category, next time you’re negotiating a trade, try to sneak in that setup man that others think are easily replaced.

“Foster Your Roster” – Hot Starts and What to Make of Them

Every Season there are players who start the year with promising numbers and then fall off.  In 2011 Sam Fuld, Jonthan Herrera and Mike Aviles came out strong and then were no longer worthy of roster spots.  On the other hand, if you ignored all of the hot starts in 2011 you would have missed out on guys like Alex Gordon, Michael Pineda and Lance Berkman.  So, with that in mind, below is my take on guys off to a good start in 2012.

Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier – The opposite case from Pujols, these two Dodgers have come out on fire.  Ethier seems like he has rediscovered the power that disappeared last year.  In 2009 he hit 31 HR’s, and the past two seasons he has hit for a .292 AVG. This is shaping up to be the year it all comes together for him.  As for Kemp, I still doubt he reaches his goal of 50/50.  That’s hardly criticism though, we may all be witnessing the season he takes over as the sports top player.

David Freese – Through 10 games he has a BABIP of .500, which is unbelievable and will certainly come down.  The good news is that in the minors his BABIP was in the .340 range, indicating he makes good contact.  His HR pace should slow down a bit, but he may settle in with a .300 AVG, 15-20 HR’s and 80+ RBI’s.

Josh Willingham – As of 4/19/12 he had a ridiculous 45% HR rate on flyballs, reasonably he should land in the 17% range.  So, despite the hot start, I wouldn’t expect Willingham to finish the year significantly above his career norms.

Carlos Pena – There is no chance he hits for a high AVG, but he has hit over 30 HR’s in all of his prior seasons in TB.  He also becomes much more valuable in leagues that reward OBP (on-base percentage).

Adam Laroche – He normally starts poorly and finishes with solid numbers so, given his good start, he should exceed expectations if he stays healthy all year.  If you can still get him cheap, make the move.

Edwin Encarnacion – Both SB’s came in the same game, and they are more of a fluke, but the HR’s, AVG and RBI’s are legit as long as he is healthy.  He’s eligible at both corner spots and the Blue Jays should put up runs all year.

Chase Headley – He already has as many HR’s (4) as he did in 2011 (113 games).  There is no way this streak will continue: 29% of his flyballs have been HR’s, compared to the 7% average he has put up over his career. It’s not even close.  Plus, PETCO will suppress any power he might actually have.  He’ll put up a respectable AVG and SB total, but don’t trade for him. If anyone wants to take him from you based on his hot start, take what you can get.

The Nationals Pitching Staff – I’m buying all of them: starters, middle relievers, and closers. Stephen Strasburg, Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez all have similar stat lines (more than a strikeout per inning).  If they keep the walks under control, they could approach or surpass the same level as the Giants starting staff.

Albert Pujols – I feel obligated to mention him, but don’t worry he’ll be fine, don’t trade him unless you get a ton of value.  He also started last year slowly and he’s still adjusting to new pitchers, due to the league change.  The average is still good, the HR’s and RBI’s will come.

If there is anyone I’ve left out that you want to discuss let me know. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @FOSTERurROSTER

Mike Scioscia, REALLY?????

I never thought I would see the day when a great catcher like Mike Scioscia would not be able to see talent when it showed its face. I cannot believe that he would sit Mark Trumbo in favor for Alberto Callaspo. I know that Mark Trumbo is a liability on defense at 3B, but he has Albert Pujols (who is more than qualified to play third), yet he thinks that benching Trumbo will help his team???????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You could play Trumbo at 1st base, Albert at 3rd, and Morales at DH. What in the hell is Scioscia thinking??????????????? Mark Trumbo has the offensive talent to lead the majors in HR, as well as bat 280, and steal 20 bases. Helloooooooooooooooo, you threw Mike Napoli away like he was garbage. When does the Angels front office realize that Mike Scioscia does not realize talent on the offensive end as well as he realizes fundamentals? Mike Scioscia should be fired for being an old school manager that does not want to play young talent. Shame on you Scioscia for being a Dinosaur in a league in the 21st century.

“Food for the Sowles” Opening Day

Being raised in a baseball family, Opening Day has always held a special meaning to me. As far back as I can remember, there was always something inherently special about Opening Day, although as a youth I could not put a finger on it. There was something subtle that induced a sort of exhilaration at the commencement of spring training, culminating in a restless night’s sleep the eve of Opening Day. As a striving little leaguer, I found myself in awe of the greats of my youth – Mantle, Mays, Koufax, Ford, Yastrzemski, Gibson, and many others. As a kid, I adopted a tradition of placing my mitt (yes, in those days we called gloves “mitts”) on the end of my bed on the eve of Opening Day. At times, when my Mom was not around, my Dad would say I “looked sick” on Opening Day, and alas, with no school to attend, we were left no recourse but to watch the ballgame together. On occasion, Opening Day was celebrated at the very house Ruth built, Yankee Stadium, and I recall my Dad carefully attempting to convince my Mom that missing one day of school was acceptable. On the days when I did make it to school on Opening Day, I was fully armed with a transistor radio, with a fresh battery of course, and an earpiece, the wire subtly run up my shirt collar to my ear. The damn radio would fade in and out at times, but at least I was able to derive an inning by inning recap, if nothing else. I was successful in my covert classroom operation until one day a teacher tapped me on the shoulder from behind and asked me “What’s the score?”

My Opening Day euphoria has transcended the years, and to this day I still share that same enthusiasm I had as a youth. The grass on the diamonds is impeccably manicured. The red, white, and blue piping around the stadiums is both impressive and inspiring.  Then we have the obligatory military jets flying overhead before the start of the game, with everybody excited and clamoring for the first pitch (after which, nowadays we immediately begin to peruse our respective fantasy rosters). On Opening Day, every team is a “contender,” even if it’s just for a day. You can hear that optimism in the various player interviews, regardless of validity or substance. I had not attended work on Opening Day when it was traditionally and rightfully so, on Monday, for many, many years. For that matter, Opening Day was traditionally, for many decades,  the first game of the season, even if it started 5 minutes before the rest of the ballgames, and always contested in Cincinnati. Although MLB has tried to push upon us an opening “overseas” game halfway around the world in the middle of the night, Opening Day in my heart should always be on Monday; though now I will have to begrudgingly reassess my position with baseball opening in full force on Thursday and Friday this season. Unfortunately, my only sad recollection of an Opening Day was in 1996, in Cincinnati; when home plate umpire, John McSherry, a kind and respected man who never missed a good meal, dropped dead behind home plate just several pitches into the game. Ironically and sadly, McSherry was slated for an appointment with his physician the very next morning, due to some cardiac issues due to his weight.

I have been looked upon with bemused skepticism by my workplace superiors when my absence was noticed on Opening Day, but they have always acquiesced and found reason to look the other way during my Opening Day absences. Today, no matter what the weather is here at home at Lake Tahoe, the heavy front door (which has barricaded me from the harsh elements of winter’s blizzards) yields to the screen door as I watch the games on Opening Day; it’s an attempt, sometimes in vain, to capture that sense of Spring, fresh air, and perhaps a whiff of fresh grass. There have been times when it has been snowing like hell here on Opening Day, yet personal tradition prevails, and the door comes open anyway, even if just for a while. It just seems right to me, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. As far as I’m concerned, Opening Day is so traditional, a case can be made to proclaim it a national holiday (which I have done for myself). I have always qualified Opening Day as being on a Monday. Because to this traditionalist, Opening Day will always embrace itself to the first Monday morning of the season; not overseas in Japan, nor on a solo Sunday night game, but Monday…always Monday. Although again, Wednesday now seems to be the day of choice (at least for the 2012 season), with one solo game on the schedule. All in all, as a baseball fan and purist of the game, there’s nothing more exhilarating and traditional than the first pitch on Opening Day. Good luck with your favorite teams and those fantasy baseball rosters, fellas. Play ball!

My Heaven called: Major League Baseball

Every year right about this time I get the same feeling. The same feeling I got as a young man on the dawn of my first game of the year. Getting up early Saturday morning, just before the sun had risen. The smell of the crisp spring air, the dew on the sharp blades of grass, the smell of my dirty leather mitt, the old crusted mud on my cleats, and the feel of the stitches on a brand new baseball. It was the dawn of a new season, and a dawn of a new beginning. The day we all start off in first place with the hopes of making it to the championship. I am 35 years old, and it has been 9 years since I have stepped foot on a baseball diamond. Even so, I still get the same tingling in my stomach for the game that is more a passion to me, and almost as important as food or water. When I played, I forgot about everything going on around me in the world. As a child, the everyday worries about getting my home work done and avoiding eating my vegetables, and as an adult, not worrying about work, paying the bills, or pissing off my ex-wife. Today represents a new chapter in the never-ending novel called baseball; in which the old are introduced to the new, and the new introduced to the old. There will be many stories told during the season that may have been read before, and like every year, a new chapter will be added to the story.

The game of baseball does not discriminate against people based on height, weight, age, speed, agility, and these days race. If you can hit a baseball, throw a baseball, or catch a baseball, the game will find a place for you. What role you have is not determined by your 40 time, but if you can run, baseball will find a place for you. If you are nearly 50 years of age and considered over the hill, if you can play, baseball will find a place for you. If you have no overwhelming talents in either category, but you are a professor of the game, baseball will find a place for you. I challenge anyone to find a game outside of slow pitch softball that can boast the same.

Many Pro-sports leagues tout that they have the best athletes, and they are the most difficult to play. I will challenge any athlete from any sport to stand in against a 100 MPH fastball, an exploding 90 MPH slider, or a mind bending 12 to 6 curve. I challenge those sports to play 6 days a week for 6 months, and see what kind of shape they are in. Bare in mind, most people work a 5 day work week for 40 hours. Pro ball players play, practice, and travel almost 70 hours a week. That is a grueling 6 month stretch, not to mention if they play in October.

The images of the grass, the box seats , the bleachers, the parks, the lights, the umpires, the coaches, the players, the vendors working the seats, the peanut shells crushed under our feet, and the sun rising to its peak are all the images I will need in my heaven called, Major League Baseball!

“Foster Your Roster” – 2012 OF Rankings

Sorry for the delay, I’ve been pretty busy with work and a couple of other things. These are all written in my spare time, so I’m trying to get them out as quickly as possible for drafts.  Feel free to comment on the posts or reach me on twitter (@FOSTERurROSTER) if you have questions about guys I haven’t covered.

Outfield has some quality players, but given the amount you need to start, it tends to get shallow a lot quicker than most people realize:

  1. Ryan Braun
  2. Matt Kemp

They are the two top options, but given the choice I’d select Braun, since he’s the safer choice.  Remember, in 2010 Kemp hit .249, so he’s not a lock for .300 despite his success last year.

  1. Jacoby Ellsbury

He likely won’t hit 30HR’s again, but if he hits 20+ to go along with 40 SB’s and an AVG near .300, he’s a top level talent.

  1. Jose Bautista

He had a great season and the power is legit, but he walked 20% of the time in 2011, so pitchers are limiting his ability to damage.  On top of that, his AVG was way above anything he’s done previously, and I can’t suggest paying for that production until you see it’s not a fluke.

  1. Justin Upton
  2. Carlos Gonzalez

Both are great hitters and well-rounded talents, with very hitter friendly home parks.  The deciding factors are Gonzalez’s risk of injury and Upton having his lowest career BABIP in 2011, which could lead to a higher AVG if it returns to prior levels.

  1. Curtis Granderson

I knew the move to Yankee Stadium would be good for him, but 2011 exceeded everyone’s expectations.  I’d be surprised if that wasn’t his career year, but that doesn’t mean a sharp drop in production is around the corner.

  1. Giancarlo Stanton

He is one of the few true 40HR threats in the league, and with an improved lineup he’s likely to have more RBI’s, but his 27.6% strikeout rate is cause for concern.

  1. Andrew McCutchen

He’s a 20/20 player who got a bit unlucky last year and should continue to improve.  The only downside is the lack of support in his lineup.

  1. Matt Holliday

The Pujols departure may actually help Holliday by leaving more RBI opportunities out there for him.  At this stage of his career he doesn’t run as much, but he’s a solid contributor.

  1. Jay Bruce

He’s already hit 32HR’s, and plays in a hitter friendly stadium.  His K and BB% were the same the past 2 seasons, but if he can improve them, then more good will follow.

  1. Josh Hamilton
  2. Nelson Cruz

Both Rangers OF’s are incredibly skilled, but have trouble staying on the field.  I’d plan for a DL trip at some point during the year, but enjoy the production while they’re in the lineup.

  1. Michael Bourn

I typically don’t like pure speed guys, but runs count too. 50-60 SB’s is a rarity that gives you freedom to seek power from guys that don’t run.

  1. Hunter Pencee
  2. Shane Victorino
  3. Shin Soo-Choo
  4. Michael Morse

He was the talk of spring training last year and followed it with a good season.  It is possible that pitchers may have better scouting to work with, but the power seems legit and the Nationals lineup is improving.

  1. Lance Berkman

Even without Pujols, the Cardinals have a decent lineup and Berkman will be in the middle of it.  I don’t think he’ll match last year’s totals, but he should still be a solid performer.

  1. Adam Jones
  2. Ben Zobrist

2011’s .269 AVG seems about right, and it splits the difference between his great .297 AVG of 2009 and terrible .238 AVG of 2010.  He fills every counting category well and is a solid option with position flexibility. 

  1. Howie Kendrick

He very quietly put together a solid year in 2011.  15/15 with a good AVG is certainly attainable, but he’s young enough that he could still make strides beyond that. 

  1. Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer has always been worth having on your roster, and now he gets the Coors field bump.  He’ll give you multi position eligibility and should produce 20 HR’s, 80 RBI’s, and a .275 AVG on the low end with better numbers as a possibility. 

  1. Ichiro Suzuki
  2. Alex Gordon

He put together a great 2011, but had a BABIP of .358, which was well above any previous season in the majors or minors, so I’m not sold on him having the same success again.

  1. Carlos Beltran
  2. Carl Crawford

If he can get/stay healthy there is no way he has another year as bad as last season.  At a certain point the risk is low enough to justify the potential reward.

  1. Corey Hart
  2. Brennan Boesch

He put up good numbers hitting in the top of lineup in 2011 and I think that will carry over into 2012.

  1. BJ Upton
  2. Desmond Jennings

A lot of hype surrounded him coming up, I think his peak will be similar to Victorino’s prime years.  However, I don’t think his peak will be the 2012 season.

  1. Jayson Werth
  2. Brett Gardner
  3. Lucas Duda
  4. Chris Young
  5. Drew Stubbs
  6. Melky Cabrera
  7. Angel Pagan
  8. Coco Crisp
  9. Jason Heyward

Last season didn’t’ look anything like his impressive rookie year.  He needs he prove he can do it again before considering him more than middle of the pack.

  1. Nick Markakis
  2. Andre Ethier
  3. Cameron Maybin
  4. Jeff Francoeur
  5. Josh Willingham

Often forgetten about, he’ll have playing time in MIN and should for power.

  1. Nick Swisher
  2. Logan Morrison
  3. Torii Hunter
  4. Alex Rios

Later in the draft he’s worth a shot to see if he bounces back.

  1. Jason Kubel

He can hit and ARI is a good park to do it in, but I wonder how often they’ll rotate between their 4 solid OF options, which may limit his playing time. 

“Foster Your Roster” – 2012 C Ranks

As a blanket statement I suggest waiting on catchers.  Yes, you want to get production whenever possible, but all catchers carry a lot of risk.  They tend to wear down more than any other position over the course of a full season, they are exposed to collisions that may lead to injuries and they get days off which take away from the opportunity to contribute.

  1. Mike Napoli

As mentioned above catchers miss a lot of time, but Napoli hit 30HRs in only 113 games last season, so he is clearly the top catcher.  Based on his BABIP his average will come down some, but if they can keep him in the lineup at 1B or DH his HRs and RBIs may rise.

  1. Brian McCann

He doesn’t have the same upside as some of the other options, but you know what you’re going to get with him and it’s in the upper tier of catchers.  For a position with so much volatility his consistency adds to the value of his stats.

  1. Carlos Santana

He may very well finish the season as the top fantasy catcher, but if he doesn’t progress as expected he may be several spots lower than this.  His patience as demonstrated by his OBP, coupled with his power are indications that the leap may come sooner than later though.

  1. Matt Wieters

He showed significant improvement last season and with a bit more he seems like he’ll finally deliver and all of the hype that surrounded him a couple of years ago.

  1. Miguel Montero

2010 was only half a season due to injury, but 2009 and 2011 were both very good fantasy seasons.  He doesn’t hit anywhere near as well against lefties, but maybe some of his days off will be worked in against them.

  1. Buster Posey

Posey may be a great talent, but he suffered a brutal injury which kept him out for a long time.  He needs to prove he’s fully recovered and has no lingering effects before you invest.

  1. Alex Avila

His 2011 BABIP of .366 is definitely unlikely to be repeated, so his AVG may drop a bit, but .275 is still solid along with his other numbers. 

  1. Joe Mauer

There is definitely risk that comes with him, but when he plays he always hits for a high average with respectable totals in the other categories.

  1. Yadier Molina

The Cardinals believed enough to give him 5 year extension.  He’s a stable option, but last season was first with double digit HRs, so he’s not a lock to reach that level again.

  1. Wilson Ramos

He’s put up good numbers as a prospect, so as he acclimates to the Majors and the grind of catching for a full season he should rise and challenge for a spot in the top 5.

  1. Geovany Soto

He’s been up and down the last several years, but towards the end he’s worth a shot to see if he can reach the levels of 2008 and 2010 (it is an even numbered year again after all). 

  1. Kurt Suzuki

He’s had a couple of really bad years of BABIP, so either he’s regressed and makes bad contact or he’s had long run of bad luck.  As a C who plays the bulk of the games it’s worth finding out before jumping on a platoon player.

Sleeper – Ryan Doumit:

His stats won’t blow you away but with a move to the AL and the chance to DH in addition to filling in at C or 1B if needed he could be in for his best season yet. 

“Foster Your Roster” – 2012 1B Ranks

First base is typically a surefire bet for offensive production. This year you can make a case for several different rankings within the top 5.  Beyond that though, there are several distinct tiers and the talent does drop off if you wait too long.

  1. Miguel Cabrera

He’s been great for years and now has protection, so he may wind up seeing better pitches.  Since 2004 he only has 2 seasons below a .320 AVG and has never played below 150 games. Add that to 30+ HR’s and 100+ RBI’s and there is nothing to dislike.  I’m not worried about a defensive change impacting his hitting at all.

  1. Albert Pujols

40+ HR’s are attainable along with triple crown threatening stats in the other categories. As a valued bonus, he’ll approach or reach double digit SB’s.  My only reservation keeping him from the top of the list is that he will be adjusting to a new league of pitchers, though I don’t expect any ill effects to be long lasting.

  1. Adrian Gonzalez

He is seemingly a different hitter in Fenway, which resulted in a .338 AVG. That will likely come down a bit, but he should still hit for a high AVG.  His HR total was lower than expected, but this is a man who hit 40 out of Petco. I expect him to reach into the 30′s for HR’s. 

  1. Joey Votto

Votto is another guy who contributes in a big way across the board.  He hits in the middle of a solid lineup and a hitter friendly ballpark.  The scary part is that he’s young enough to improve.

  1. Prince Fielder

He doesn’t have the AVG upside that the top 4 do, but he’ll be on par with them in the other categories. He also plays every day.

  1. Mark Teixeira

Once the cream of the crop, he can no longer be considered elite.  He can still put up big HR and RBI totals, but his AVG has been trending downward. You shouldn’t have to take on that risk from your 1B slot.

  1. Paul Konerko

People have an irrational hatred for Konerko on draft day and I’m not sure why, he’s 36, but people act like he’s old enough to be Jamie Moyer’s father.  He was written off after a poor 2008 (in which he had a low BABIP of .244), but he has performed well since then, and I don’t see a sudden drop-off coming.

This is where the drop-off begins in my view.  There is definitely still great talent remaining, but from here on out it all comes with substantial question marks.

  1. Eric Hosmer

He seems to do everything well, and eventually should reach the upper echelon of first basemen.  Overall I’m a believer, but there is some risk for a sophomore slump. You’ll also be passing up players with more of an MLB track record.

  1. Mike Napoli

If you have him he’ll likely be in your lineup at catcher,  but he also qualifies for this group.  His AVG and HR/Fly Ball ratio were unsustainably high last season, so there will definitely be some regression in his numbers. 

  1. Michael Morse

He was the talk of spring training last year and followed it with a good season.  It is possible that pitchers may have better scouting to work with, but the power seems legit and the Nationals lineup is improving.

  1. Lance Berkman

Even without Pujols, the Cardinals have a decent lineup. Berkman will be in the middle of it.  I don’t think he’ll match last years totals, but he should still be a solid performer.

  1. Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer has always been worth having on your roster, and now he gets the Coors field bump.  He’ll give you multi position eligibility, and should produce 20 HR’s, 80 RBI’s and a .275 AVG on the low end, with better numbers as a possibility. 

  1. Carlos Santana

Another catcher with first base eligibility, which is definitely a trend that will continue for the top hitting catchers.  He was a big time prospect, and should only improve on last season’s numbers.

  1. Gabby Sanchez

He has some less than ideal righty/lefty splits, however there are some things to like.  He’s in the middle of an improved lineup, so he should be able to improve his RBI total, and rumor is the new ballpark may be more hitter friendly.

  1. Freddie Freeman

It pains me to put the Braves young first basemen above the Mets, but he performed well aside from the first and last months of the season.  I expect him to handle the rigors of a full season better his second time around, and with some improvement against lefties he can improve his overall numbers.

  1. Ike Davis

He started last season really strong, only to have it cut short by an injury.  I originally thought he’d be higher on the list with 30 HR potential, but reports of Valley Fever and possibly needing days off for rest red flags in addition to recovering from an ankle injury.

  1. Adam Lind

If he can split the difference between his good and bad season, it would settle around a .270 AVG with 25ish HR’s and 80-90 RBI’s.  The concern is that if he doesn’t land in the middle, he could hit .245.

  1. Carlos Lee

His years of fantasy stardom are long gone, but he can still be a productive player realistically putting up .275/20/80.

  1. Kendrys Morales

He’s capable of elite numbers when he’s healthy, and this is about the range that the risk is worth it.

  1. Paul Goldschmidt

Similar to Mark Reynolds, but he had some decent AVG’s in the minors, so hitting .250+ isn’t unrealistic.

  1. Lucas Duda

At his size (6’4”, 254lbs) it’s surprising when you don’t see him hitting HR’s.  He’ll never lead the league, but with the walls coming in at Citi Field he could hit 20+ and put up a good AVG.

  1. Edwin Encarnacion

He won’t do anything incredible, but could be a good fill-in option for the corner spots.

  1. Mark Reynolds

At this point you know what he is and you need to figure out if the power is worth the burden of finding others to help your batting average.

  1. Carlos Pena

See Mark Reynolds, unless you get credit for OBP. In that case, Pena moves way up.

  1. Mark Tumbo

He’ll need to find his at bats at DH or 3B, but as long as he’s in the lineup, he should put up decent numbers.

  1. Ryan Howard

I think it’s entirely possible that he comes back and hits.  I’m just concerned about when he’ll come back.  He’s already had one set back and I’m fearful of the waiting game that happened with Morales last season, which wound up yielding nothing.

  1. Adam Dunn

I don’t think anyone saw that collapse coming.  He has to be better than last season right?  It’s worth taking him late in the draft to find out.

  1. Mike Carp

He put up good numbers in half a season, and in any other ball park I would be a lot more interested. He’s worth a shot late.

  1. Mitch Moreland

Adequate is the best way to describe him, but he’ll need to improve to avoid falling into a platoon.  His AVG was 30 points higher and 15 of his 16 HR’s came against right handed pitchers last season.

  1. Chris Davis

He’ll put up HRs if he plays, but AVG and playing time are the questions.  If he loses the job in Baltimore to weak competition, then I think it’s time to write him off.

 

Mark’s Remarks…A Cajun Bounty

Recently I read John Clayton’s article on ESPN titled, “Saints Bounty Story Worse than Spygate,” and I have to disagree with that notion. While it’s not OK to pay a player to hurt their opponent on purpose, it isn’t illegal or against any NFL rules. Spygate, on the other hand, was illegal. It was spying, and it gave the Patriots an unfair advantage.

For defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, this is a repeat performance. This also happened when he was the defensive coordinator for the Washington Redskins. I do not remember any penalties against him when he was with the Redskins. The fact that this happened for 3 years makes it a big problem. It strikes me as funny that he will talk about it after the Saints let him go this off-season. He now apologizes for what happen the previous years, and as the defensive coordinator of the Saint Louis Rams, says that it will never happen again.

Being a native of New Orleans, I know Tom Benson would never have allowed such a practice because he is a wonderful person. The NFL will go severely at the Saints to make them an example, seeing that the NFL is not the NFL we used to watch 20 years ago. The Saints will probably lose draft picks, as well as suffer huge fines and suspensions. Amazing for a team that hasn’t really ever had a great defense. Again, they did not break any rules. The idea of bounties have been around football for a long time. Buddy Ryan’s defenses were always suspected of having bounties on players. My biggest point is that they did not break any actual rules, so comparing them to spygate and saying that it’s worse is completely wrong.

“Foster Your Roster” – Double Threats – 2B Rankings

In 2011, nine 2B’s had double digit HR’s and SB’s.  Walker missed with 9 SB’s and Cano with 8.  That group of nine also excludes Ackley and Kipnis, both of whom likely only missed out because they started the season in the minor leagues.  Now you need to get some SB’s from your 2B or else make up for it elsewhere, because almost all of your opponents will be getting that contribution.  Below are my rankings for second basemen in 2012:

  1. Dustin Pedroia

Last season was his first 20/20 campaign, but if he stays healthy there is no reason he can’t duplicate those stats.  Including his .300 AVG, 90 R’s, and 90 RBI’s.  Even if some of those numbers regress slightly, he still gives you the most complete 2B in the league.  Plus, he’ll get 40-50 more plate appearances than Cano will.

  1. Robinson Cano

This is not a knock on Cano.  He consistently hits for a high AVG and is at the top of the pack in HR’s and RBI’s.  Also, since 2007 he has consistently played in at least 159 games.  The reason the consensus top 2B is second on my list is be he doesn’t match the SB totals of the other top tier second basemen.

  1. Ian Kinsler

Kinsler stayed healthy and played 155 games in 2011. The full season of playing time yielded his second 30/30 season in three years.  There are risks related to health and AVG, however, his BABIP was lower than normal, so his AVG should be higher in 2012.

  1. Brandon Phillips

He’s not going to lead second basemen in any statistical category, but he will be towards the top of the list for all of them.  You know you’ll get at least .275 AVG and in the neighborhood of 20/20. That reliability has a ton of value.

  1. Dan Uggla

I’m not an Uggla fan and it was hard for me to have him this high on my list, but everyone below him is inconsistent, unproven, or an injury risk.  30 HR’s is a lock, and he puts up Runs and RBI’s, but he doesn’t steal bases.  Batting average is the biggest concern though. Despite two seasons above .280, four of six seasons he has hit .260 or below.

  1. Chase Utley

It’s highly unlikely he’ll ever get back to the level that made him the unquestioned top second baseman, but he played last year when a lot of people thought it would be a lost season for him.  So, if there is any player with an injury risk to take a chance on, he’s the guy.

  1. Ben Zobrist

2011’s .269 AVG seems about right, and it splits the difference between his great .297 AVG of 2009 and terrible .238 AVG of 2010.  He fills every counting category well and is a good target once the upper tier options are off the board.

  1. Howie Kendrick

He very quietly put together a solid year in 2011.  15/15 with a good AVG is certainly attainable, but he’s young enough that he could still make strides beyond that. 

  1. Rickie Weeks

He brings a ton of talent to the table, but there has only been one season in which he played over 130 games.  I’ll take a shot on him before the up and comers with little track record, but be sure to have a bench player you’re not afraid of using.

  1. Neil Walker

He has already dealt with what could have been a sophomore slump successfully, and I anticipate continued improvement.

  1. Jason Kipnis

He came out of the gate strong last season, and while you can’t extrapolate those numbers over a full season, he should produce in all categories.  His BABIP was inline with his minor league seasons, so the AVG shouldn’t decrease. I also expect double digits in both HR’s and SB’s.

  1. Dustin Ackley

Ackley is very similar to Kipnis except his BABIP was slightly higher than it had been in the minors, so there could be some regression in AVG. He also has a more difficult home ballpark to deal with. 

  1. Jemile Weeks

At this point, you need to consider team need.  Weeks will contribute positively to your AVG and SB’s, but it comes at the expense of power, which some other remaining options have.

  1. Kelly Johnson

He fits well with the Blue Jays’ “all or nothing” approach to offense.  He seemed to alternate good and bad months, which makes him frustrating to own.  He’s put it all together before, though, so he’s worth a shot late in the draft.

  1. Danny Espinosa

I’m not a fan of players with low AVG’s, but he has 20/20 potential. If he can get around .250 for an AVG it makes him worthy of a roster space.

  1. Ryan Roberts

Players normally don’t have break out season at age 30, and I’m betting teams knew what they were doing not giving him a starting job previously.  He hit .238 against right handed pitching, which sounds like a platoon candidate to me, so I’m not convinced he has a starting job all season.

  1. Aaron Hill

Any positive memory you have of him is based on 2 good seasons in 2007 & 2009.  He could reach double digit SB’s and HR’s, but since the AVG won’t be high, I’d rather take a shot on one of the prospects.

  1. Jose Altuve

He should hit for a solid AVG and steal some bases.  If you’re desperate for a 2B he’s worth a flier.

  1. Daniel Murphy

He’s not going to hurt you while filling a roster spot, and multi-position eligibility may make him worth stashing as a versatile reserve option.

  1. Gordon Beckham

He was such a highly touted prospect (I was even on the bandwagon) but after two bad seasons, I’m removing him from my draft list.  Let him serve as an example of why Ackley & Kipnis aren’t ranked higher.

  1. Omar Infante

He is similar to Murphy but with less position eligibility. 

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